Bryce Harper, Joc Pederson, Red Sox scapegoats and what we learned this week

Publish date: 2024-07-24

Nine things we learned this week while adding up the total distances of Bryce Harper’s home runs.

  • Bryce Harper is a star. Given his pre-career hype (teenager on the cover of Sports Illustrated), his marketing machine (provided by the Boras Corp.) and the glimpses we have seen previously (you think the Giants wanted to face him for one more division series game last fall?), Harper had in a lot of ways already achieved stardom. But he is now racking up the accomplishments to match the rep. Even before the four-game tear that closed the week – in which Harper hit six homers, drove in 13 runs and went 10 for 16 in four straight victories – he had become a better, more selective hitter. Three players have on-base-plus-slugging percentages higher than Harper’s 1.090: Adrian Gonzalez of the Dodgers, Nelson Cruz of the Mariners and Paul Goldschmidt of the Diamondbacks. Their ages: 33, 34 and 27, respectively. Harper, we need to keep reminding ourselves, is 22, and he currently leads the National League in homers (11) and is one back in RBI (28).
  • The Red Sox pitching was so bad they already needed a scapegoat. Last Thursday, Boston’s ERA was 4.86, second-worst in the game. A starting staff that had no ace – Jon Lester departed, and newcomers Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson hadn’t stepped forward – was in shambles, with a 5.54 ERA. So pitching coach Juan Nieves, who held the same spot when the Red Sox won the 2013 World Series, was fired. He was replaced late Saturday by former Cleveland pitching coach Carl Willis. But Willis might have to be a miracle worker. Porcello has the rotation’s lowest ERA (4.38), the only member of the starting staff below 5.18 – and Miley is at an astronomical 6.91. And Boston begins the week losers of 10 of its past 14 games, sitting in last place in the very winnable American League East.
  • The Athletics have no margin for error. By most measures, perennially competitive Oakland is right where it normally is. The A’s have scored 153 runs and allowed 156, a run differential that should put them right around .500. Yet at 12-21 they have the American League’s worst record. How? They have played 11 one-run games and lost 10 of them. “It’s easy to lose,” Manager Bob Melvin said after a 4-3 loss to Seattle Sunday. “We need to start believing we’re going to win.” One thing that would help that belief: A consistent bullpen. The A’s have already used 14 different relievers, and another – Edward Mujica, cast aside by Boston – will arrive this week. Their collective ERA is 5.16, worst in the AL by more than half a run.
  • Joc Pederson doesn’t hit the ball to fielders. By any measure, the Dodgers rookie center fielder – a primary reason Los Angeles was deemed to have too many outfielders and found themselves in position to trade Matt Kemp – is having an outstanding start to the season with a 1.050 OPS. But he is also a bit of an anomaly in that he produces an inordinate number of the sport’s “three true outcomes” – home runs, walks and strikeouts (called such because they don’t involve the defensive team). Pederson has nine homers, is tied for the league lead (with Harper) with 27 walks and has struck out 39 times. That’s 75 “true outcomes” in his first 119 plate appearances, or 63 percent of the time. We’re talking Adam Dunn territory here. Throw in Pederson’s 14 hits that weren’t homers, and Pederson has, oddly, made an out involving a defensive player just once every four times up.
  • The American League Central race could be worth watching all summer. Friday night, Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler singled off impenetrable Royals reliever Wade Davis for a walk-off victory that pushed Detroit into first place, a half game ahead of Kansas City. The next day, the Royals rebounded with a 6-2 victory – and jumped back into first. Sunday, Royals closer Greg Holland loaded the bases with none out in the 10th – and then pitched out of it, securing a 2-1 victory that pushed Kansas City’s lead in the division to 1 1/2 games. And that’s as big a gap as there has been all season.
  • The Yankees are in first place because of the back end of their bullpen. It was easy to pick apart New York’s lineup as too old and not versatile enough, its rotation full of question marks, and say the Yankees couldn’t win the AL East. But the team’s strength — relievers Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller – has offset those flaws to this point. In 35 combined innings, neither has allowed an earned run. Betances, who established himself as a stud setup man a year ago, has 30 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings, over which opposing hitters have posted a .121 average and .136 slugging percentage. Miller, a lefty signed to a four-year, $36-million deal in the offseason, was installed as the closer for the first time in his career and has by some measures been better: 13 saves in 13 opportunities, with 26 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings and an opposing average of .059 and slugging percentage of .078. In his last 10 appearances, Miller has allowed one hit.
  • It can snow in May in Colorado, and that can make the Rockies a mess. Look in the standings, and it shows the Rockies have lost nine straight games to negate a surprisingly positive start and put Colorado in last place in the NL West. But the reality is the Rockies just completed what was supposed to be a six-game, seven-day homestand in which they had three games postponed by weather, and they only got in Sunday’s finale against the Dodgers after four inches of snow was removed from the playing surface at Coors Field. Worse than the weather, though: The Rockies’ pitching. Colorado’s team ERA of 5.47 is last in baseball and a half-run worse than Boston, which ranks 29th in the category.
  • The draft is less than a month away, and there’s no telling how the first round will go. Scouts and other industry sources can’t remember an amateur draft that seems this volatile at the top. Not only is there no clear No. 1 choice – a la Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper – but there’s an unusually large pool of candidates, not because they’re all projected to be all-stars, but because there isn’t as much consensus high-end talent. Injuries to Duke pitcher Michael Matuella (from Georgetown Prep) and California pitcher Brady Aiken (last year’s No. 1 overall pick, who didn’t sign with Houston) further muddy the waters. Making things more confusing: The Diamondbacks hold the top choice, and their entire baseball operations – from General Manager Dave Stewart to scouting director Derrick Ladnier (who came from the Nationals) – is entering a draft for the first time. Contenders for the top choice include UC-Santa Barbara pitcher Dillon Tate and Vanderbilt shortstop Dansby Swanson, but those who follow this aspect of the sport closely could have a wild month of prospect-watching.
  • The Cardinals aren’t impervious to problems. At 22-9, St. Louis still has the best record in baseball. The Cardinals just completed a 20-games-in-20-days stretch with a 14-6 record. They are very, very good. But through it all, as they lost ace Adam Wainwright for the season, concerns surfaced. Cardinals’ relievers have thrown more innings than any team in the NL – the first indication that the loss of the innings-eating Wainwright will have a trickle-down effect. Jordan Walden, supposed to be a key piece of the bullpen, is out for as long as 10 weeks with a strained muscle in his shoulder. Matt Carpenter, the team’s leadoff hitter and offensive engine, spent the weekend home in St. Louis while the team was in Pittsburgh with what the team called “extreme fatigue” – trouble sleeping, an accelerated heart rate, dehydration. The Cardinals have an off day in Cleveland Monday. After that: 16 more in a row, after which we’ll know even more about what, to this point, has been baseball’s best team.

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